Leading Economic Indicators

August 2nd, 2008. These three pairs of shoes mark the day I should have realized that the economy was in the crapper. Because all three pairs were on serious, serious, serious sale at Jeffrey. Trendoid patent leather stilettos with hot pink heels in the shape of flowers, these are not. No, these are three of the most basic, elegant pairs of shoes a girl can hope to find marked 70% off. 250$ is not a crazy amount to spend on boots. But 1100$ is. And that was the original price of those boots. As Fred, my guy at Jeffrey said that day "You'll never see these on sale again." And reader, maybe he's right. But not for the reasons he thought.

I left the store that day, feeling ebullient- like I had gotten away with something. I couldn't believe my luck- three pairs of simple black shoes, for the price of, well, one pair of Louboutins? But looking back, I wonder if I should have guessed something was up. Because, at most points between 2005-2007, those three, basic pairs of shoes would have been long gone by week four of the sale. Heck, they probably never would have gone on sale at all. The fact that there they were, lingering (in my mind, waiting for me,) was perhaps a notice that a seismic shift was underway.  

Now, seven months later, I don't regret anything, but times, they have, as they say, a-changed.  Now, the stock market has followed the shoes to deep discount territory. The only thing is, I don't know what a deal on the stock market looks like. If only I knew my stocks like I know my shoes. And, as I walk to the subway in my favorite black boots, their red soles scraping off with wear, I wonder if the days of 1100$ plain black boots, like million dollar studios, and citibank stock at 51.80, are over?